Sucker's Gap. (Mark 3; one for the pedants!)
"Will Hand" wrote in message
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"Dawlish" wrote in message
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00z ENS don't rule out the return of colder conditions at 10 days, but
the odds are heavily stacked against that happening with those ens.
However, the gfs and the ECM were warm outliers at 10 days; the gfs
was the warmest single member for London on the 25th of the month.
My own forecasting technique uses consistency over time and model
agreement in actually forecasting at 10 days, however, rather than the
ens spaghetti. One more set of milder operational runs would do me.
SUCKER! :-)
Will
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At least you've dropped the gap.
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