On Jan 20, 10:16*am, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*Les Hemmings writes:http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf.../fair-weather-
friends-met-office

There was a very good full page article by Philip Eden in yesterday's
Telegraph covering much the same ground:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/we...wished-you-cou...

Ignore the headline, which doesn't reflect the tenor of the article.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

Yes, thanks John. I'd read parts of it, but I don't take the
Telegraph. Just lots of sense. Especially this bit:

"The publicity given to a handful of self-styled long-range
forecasters who got lucky with their own forecasts for this winter is
understandable, but nevertheless ill-conceived. None of their output,
when analysed over a long period, bears any sort of scrutiny. Their
philosophy seems to be to hype up the one lucky hit in eight attempts,
and to quietly sweep the other seven under the carpet."

A few posters, who have lauded the prescience of some of these people,
really have to examine the forecasting credentials of these "self-
styled long-range forecasters". Those credentials are not found in
what they write, or the beliefs that they hold; they are found in
their outcome success rates and *nothing else*. Point me to one that
has a good success rate, over a long period of time, that doesn't
involve the simple hindcast odds that I use and I'll show you a long-
range forecaster who has the capabilities to break the present LRF
stalemate. Lots, lots, more research and more powerful models are
needed before seasonal and even monthly forecasting comes into the
realms of reasonable accuracy - by anyone.