On Jan 20, 8:32*pm, Chris Smith wrote:
Col wrote:
"Terry Tibbs" wrote in message
...
cold gone.
sucker gap wider

will?

A return to raging zonality.
Where did that come from?
Seemingly completely at odds with all the other models,
for now at least, or perhaps it's the start of a trend.
Ridiculously mild outlier perhaps.

Hoorah! Here's hoping...

--
Chris
Swaffham, Norfolk

It came from a 3-run development of the ECM Col. It's not out of
nowhere, though it is an extension of what had happened on the
previous 12z and the 00z runs and, as you say, it is at odds with
other models. The 00z ens show that the operational was close to the
mean (if a little warmer) and the mean trend, gfs+ECM, past 8 days, is
milder, rather than colder. Still nothing is sorted, but there has
been some real changes in the ECM output over the last 24 hours,
whereas the gfs (and GEM) still show colder. I have a feeling there
may be a believable 10-day solution tomorrow (or am I just hoping for
this)