Quite a turnaround this morning with the 00z ECM now showing a similar
easterly solution at T240 to the one that the gfs has hinted at a
couple of times recently and that its 00z run still shows. It's a
reappearence on the gfs again and at 10 days, as I said yesterday,
that's a powerful hint to me that what we are seeing may well be the
most likely outcome. Not impossible that we could see some very cold
weather at 10 days, but I've nothing like 75% confidence that will
happen....... yet.

*If* this did happen, the gfs would have been the first to pick it up
again. Yesterday's 12z gfs operational showed a far colder scenarion
than did the ECM, which was hinting at a westerly regime at 10 days. I
wonder if the gfs upgrade is beginning to reap dividends? There is an
update for the ECM planned for today too. From the 12z run onwards the
twice-daily runs will have a better horizontal resolution than they
had previously.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...solution_2009/