On Jan 28, 12:06*pm, Alan wrote:
On Jan 28, 11:19*am, RK wrote:

The 06Z GFS operational may have been cold, but the ensembles look
much milder than previously. Fewer signs of height rises over
Greenland, more signs of a slow sink into southeast Europe as the
Atlantic gets going again.

Certainly warmer than the 00Z GFS ensembles, but the basic pattern
still looks the same.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m11.html

Just another thought, IF[and that's a big if] a cold pool does descend
upon us in 8-10 days time, is it likely this would ever been shown on
an ensemble 8-10 days out. In fact I can't remember a time I've seen
an ensemble showing 850MB temperature at less than -10C past 5 days?
What I'm asking if this event does occur what is the probability an
ensemble would actually show it 8-10 days out?