On Jan 29, 11:01*pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
Well we've had endless operational runs like this one, this winter. None
have even vaguely happened in the predicted way although of course some have
led to cold spells. The usual pattern is first of all it will be a very cold
outlier in the already confused portion of *the Ensembles. Then it will
either flip to the opposite with the actual outcome being some rough
consensus of all the models. This will be interesting with the UKMO showing
SW'lies.
Sigh.
Dave

That's a typical T240+ pattern, Dave, for sure, however, I can't agree
with what you said here; "*None* have even vaguely happened in the
predicted way". There have been two examples of where consistency and
agreement has pointed almost exactly to the outcome at 10 days, since
the start of January and I've documented them clearly on here. Most of
the time at 10 days+, I agree, it has been spaghetti and confusion (a
well known ensemble dish!).