In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
Well we've had endless operational runs like this one, this winter. None
have even vaguely happened in the predicted way although of course some have
led to cold spells. The usual pattern is first of all it will be a very cold
outlier in the already confused portion of the Ensembles. Then it will
either flip to the opposite with the actual outcome being some rough
consensus of all the models. This will be interesting with the UKMO showing
SW'lies.

Remember that the UKMO model only forecasts out to 8 days, whereas many
of the runs of the other two models show the easterly only beginning
after 9 or 10 days. Having said that, UKNO does seem to be alone in
having a vigorous SWly after 7-8 days.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)