On Jan 30, 10:56*am, Dawlish wrote:
A typical western margin set-up. Colder, continental air from the east
vying for influence with milder Atlantic air from the west.

The 06z gfs is very likely to have been on the cold side of the
ensemble mean and may well be an outlier. The 00z ECM points to a
battleground. The UKMO is more progressive and suggests that the east
will have to rally to push an easterly over us by 10 days.The 00z gfs
mean is also a little warmer than yesterday's with more warmer
members, but it still shows colder than average overall.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

Predict the outcome at T240! Maybe we should have a little
competition. I'd *still* go for the cold air winning, especially with
the ensemble mean staying solidly colder, though I'd only go 4/6
colder, with a milder outcome at 6/4. Too close to call this morning,
IMO.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

A fair way on the cold side of the ensemble mean, with little support.

However, the MetO is clearly going for the easterly solution at 10 days
+:

UK Outlook for Thursday 4 Feb 2010 to Saturday 13 Feb 2010:
Many eastern areas should be dry at first, although with an increasing
risk of wintry showers in coastal areas. Western parts are likely to
see outbreaks of rain, becoming heavy at times on upslopes, with a
risk of snow in northern Scotland. Temperatures probably near normal
in the west but rather cold in the east with overnight frost in
places. Wintry showers and clear spells likely over the first weekend
of February, with rain likely over low ground in the west but snow
more likely elsewhere. Temperatures likely to become cold or rather
cold with a widespread overnight frost. The cold conditions are likely
to continue throughout the second week of February, with easterly or
southeasterly winds bringing cold air from the continent and a further
risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1200 on Sat 30 Jan 2010