In article ,
Alex Stephens Jr writes:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
A typical western margin set-up. Colder, continental air from the east
vying for influence with milder Atlantic air from the west.

The 06z gfs is very likely to have been on the cold side of the
ensemble mean and may well be an outlier. The 00z ECM points to a
battleground. The UKMO is more progressive and suggests that the east
will have to rally to push an easterly over us by 10 days.The 00z gfs
mean is also a little warmer than yesterday's with more warmer
members, but it still shows colder than average overall.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

Predict the outcome at T240! Maybe we should have a little
competition. I'd *still* go for the cold air winning, especially with
the ensemble mean staying solidly colder, though I'd only go 4/6
colder, with a milder outcome at 6/4. Too close to call this morning,
IMO.

I thought the battleground was a couple of days ago and the cold air has
already won? I don't see much sign of milder conditions returning any time
soon on models? The ensemble mean stays below the LTA out until 15 days does
it not?
Alex.



At least in the south, the models seem to show a milder interlude (or
possibly more than an interlude) around midweek.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)