In article
,
Dawlish writes:
On Feb 1, 4:51*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Presently we've got the 00z ECM showing easterlies at T240, the 12z
gfs showing easterlies at T240 and the GEM showing westerlies at T240,
with the UKMO showing easterlies at T144. All these 4 are just about
the *exact opposite* of what they were showing at this time yesterday.

This is Olympic class *tumbling, never mind somesaults! I don't think
I can ever remember this happening and two up the models (gfs and ECM)
have had upgrades during January. *O

Fascinating, fun and pretty useless for getting a 10 day forecast
correct!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

.............and thinking about that over a rather nice tea, I think
that yesterday, each model was showing almost the exact opposite of
what it was the day before that, which actually means that each model
is now showing, to a greater, or lesser extent, what it was 2 days
ago!

I think you are on to something Len, but instead of daily, maybe we
should restrict ourselves to dipping into the models once every 2 days
(or restrict model runs to once every 2 days, thus saving a fortune,
as Ronald wished). If we'd done that, we'd never have had any of this
silly and unnecessary excitement.

*))



At last we seem to have some agreement between the main models, with
today's 12Z operational runs from GFS, ECMWF and UKMO all suggesting
that an easterly will set in as early as this weekend though, at least
initially, it doesn't look like being particularly cold.

A new feature is that from about a week out the 12Z GFS has a
substantial number of very cold ensemble members, with 850mb temps for
London at or below -10C. They're still in the minority, though, with the
ensemble mean no more than a degree or two belong the long-term mean.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)