Into February now and time is growing shorter and the days longer, in
which to finally get the return of the deep cold. the sucker's chasm
is now a sucker's.....well it's not happened really.

The UKMO now shows milder conditions after the weekend, as does the
gfs (though the gfs shows colder with a northerly further out). I
sense another model push by the Atlantic, but whether this one will
prove enough to become reality (or not!) may take until the weekend to
become clear. it may take longer, of course, or the next 4 gfs runs
may be backed by the gfs, allowing a pattern to become clear, but
after the twisting tumbles of the last few days, one has to think that
the models have not settled yet.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?02-17

The ECM ensembles show the weather no colder than it is now well into
the future, though the 00z ECM and the 00z gfs operationals, this
morning, were on the warmer side of the ensemble mean.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

The SSW event appears to be having little effect and it first peaked
10 days ago. Maybe the El Nino will have an effect later in February.
The jet stays stubbornly south of the UK, which gives the cold a fair
old chance. I'd go 2/1 colder weather at 10 days, but the models have
not shown the consistency to forecast that with confidence.