On Feb 2, 10:34*pm, "Phil Gurr" wrote:
"Ken Cook" wrote in message

...





On 2 Feb, 18:15, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:

It's snowed on four of the last five days here and more is forecast for
tomorrow night and Thursday morning. So potentially snow on six out of
seven
days this week. The mean temperature for the last five days is sub zero
here. By any stretch of the imagination it's not mild. In fact I think
it's
both colder and snowier than the GFS or met office forecast for this time
7
days ago.
The suckers gap never really existed except in the permanent search for a
siberian easterly forecast 7 days in advance.
I'm not sure whether people are trying to see 2 weeks in advance or
beyond
the edge of their nose sometimes.
;-)
Alex, somewhere up north.- Hide quoted text -

Hi, Alex,
Same here, they do make me smile sometimes.
Ken
Copley - not so far north but far enough, thank goodness!

I wonder what grass looks like?

Phil
From even further north- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

If it was a bit drier today, you could come and cut mine Phil. Any
time you have withdrawal symptoms, the mower's in the shed. I used it
last week, but as the green stuff is growing apace with yesterday
seeing 11c and today looking like it could match it (9.8C in
Teignmouth ATM).

Well; the outcome certainly wasn't decided yesterday, was it? The ECM
12z and the gfs 06z are now both showing easterlies developing at some
stage; the ECM being much more progressive than the gfs, which brings
them in late this weekend.

There's been no particular advantage in using the ens to divine the
weather in the second third of February, as they are shifting with the
lurches in NWP output. It really doesn't matter whether the rules of
ens watching are followed; tight plume, small spread, ops close to the
mean = confidence - it simply hasn't worked over the last 5 days.
Whatever has shown has been fickle, whatever the shape of the ensemble
and whatever the ensemble mean shows. An impossible time for medium-
tem forecasting and a dreadful time for the models in determining what
the weather could be like at 6 days+.

These are the ECM ens, still showing, from the 12z yesterday; one run
of the model ago: trending milder. They bear very little resemblance
to what is shown this morning:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

These are the gfs 00z ens for 12 hours later: trending significantly
colder

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Fascinating to see *all* models failing to deal with the present
situation. All, including the UKMO, have shown major elements of
incapacity over the last 5 days. The verification scores at present
are as high, as usual, with the UKMO coming out top at 5 days, but
there's nothing to show 10-day verification and the recent bout of
hesitancy at 5/6 days has not yet fed through. Even in a few days
time, the output scores are not specific to the UK.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html

Very interesting, but nothing remotely certain!