"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
That's enough for me. 5 gfs runs with agreement from the ECM leads me
to a 10-day forecast.

**At T240, on Valentine's Day, the UK will still be in the grip of a
cold spell. There will be snow lying in some areas of lowland Britain
and that snow will have been on the ground for some time, causing
disruption and travel problems. On the 14th, the wind direction will
be from a continental, or a northern source and temperatures across
much of Britain will be below average.**

Well there you go. That, for me, is the probable outcome of 5 days of
some of the most interesting model watching of recent years. Dig out
the thermals, we've got a week of cold coming, starting at the end of
the weekend.

I think this is the models forecast rather than your own

You could look back over the last 2 months weather and just as easily draw
the same cold forecast in conclusion, indeed I'm sure the models do just
that in their computations.

Some of us, perhaps most indeed, haven't been silly enough to put the
thermals away yet based on the mild T240 models earlier in the week as we
have been experiencing very cold weather - for 2 months. And snow lying on
the 14th of Feb somewhere in lowland UK must be very normal given it's
probably about the most likely date on the calender for this to occur.

Still, forecasting an easterly or northerly at 10 days is not exactly what
the models are doing, they favour high pressure over the UK more I think by
then?
Not sure, that being the case, why you think some of Britain will have
normal or above normal temperatures?

Alex.