February 7th 10, 11:35 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Mar 2008
Posts: 10,601
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Cold, frosty and wintry on Valentine's Day
On Feb 7, 10:01*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 6, 8:09*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 5, 6:48*pm, James Brown
wrote:
In message
,
Dawlish writes
On Feb 5, 5:04*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
The technique that I use recognises the times - and those times are
few, IMO, as a result of model watching for years now - ...
I've been model watching for years Will, but it's never helped me
forecast the weather ;-)
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net
Heh! Don't blame Will: that was me who scribbled that Keith! *~ )
12z gfs keeps the same theme and the 00z ECM ensembles paints a cold
picture with both operationals ever so close to the ensemble mean for
once. So nailed on then....8))
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...
Errr - I'm not sure Keith meant that a meteorological model Paul -
though apologies if I have misunderstood the smiley!
Cheers
James
--
James Brown- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
*))
Well they definitely don't want to be doing lingerie shoots outside
next week!
It looks "blooming cold" (as santa Claus would say!) for a fair old
time. This winter has further to run. The ECM and the gfs paint the
same, cold picture out to T240 and beyond. No hints of the Atlantic
breaking through yet. When spring finally does come, with the
alleviation of this coming cold, it will come with relief for many!
The great British public are going to have to grin and bear it over
the next 10 days at least. There's a very tight ECM ensemble plume,
right out to the 14th/15th and the operational runs have remained
amazingly and unusually close to the mean for the last 2 sets.
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...
Cold to 10 days. Even when my confidence is high, I've always waited 3
days before another forecast - to hopefully shrug off accusations of
"cashing in" on what I see as a confident situation - and I would
expect to be saying that the cold will extend past mid-month tomorrow,
but you can never be sure. I've read *that models can be capricious
things!- Hide quoted text -
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Not much has changed in the model output this morning. GFS and ECM are
looking cold past mid-month now and there are possibilities for snow
in the east throughout next week and in other areas later next week,
into the weekend and perhaps beyond - and again when this situation
breaks down. The detail will develop as we get closer.
The 00z gfs ens confirm the cold spell, but hint at a mildening beyond
mid-month. I wouldn't set too much store by that yet, but hope springs
and all that!
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
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