In article
,
Dawlish writes:
A slow warm towards Spring? The ECM 12z and gfs 00z ens would have us
think so:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

I'm happy about having said, 5 days ago, that it will be cold to
Valentine's Day, but after that, a change to a slightly less cold
Northerly is probable and then.........a very slow warm towards
spring, I suppose. There's little to suggest there will be a quick
breakdown of the cold spell. The Atlantic returns towards the edge of
gfs reality, but that's not something I'd like to say would happen on
any particular day, just yet!

And the latter part of the 00Z GFS run seemed to be something of a mild
outlier. The ensemble gradually warmed over time in the second half of
the period, but by the end of it was still slightly below average. I'm
not sure how much one should read into that warming trend, as I think
the ensemble runs almost always have a tendency to revert towards
average later on, as "random noise" starts to dominate.

The GFS 06Z operational run is interesting, as after the northerly in
just over a weeks time it retrogresses the Low responsible so that
eventually we are in a southerly. Though Highs retrogress from time to
time, it's quite rare to see a Low doing it.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)