On Feb 14, 9:43*am, Nick wrote:
Looking ahead a bit, would anyone like to make any vague predictions
for spring?

I say that as there seems to be a slight correlation between winter
weather and that of the following spring, at least since 1979. In the
years which had distinctly colder than average winters, and which the
cold continued into the 2nd half of February (so1982, 1991 or 1997 =
no, as they all turned mild either mid February or before, but 1979,
1985, 1986, 1987 and 1996 = yes) there seems to be a tendency for
spring also to have more cold spells than normal, and worryingly
perhaps, for some of those, the summer to be poor as well (all but
1996). Another tendency is that following easterly Februaries (1981,
83, 86) *March then tends to be very westerly, ironically perhaps,
after a blocked February - I guess the jet moves north.

Is there a real scientific reason for any of these links, i.e. are we
looking at facing a cold spring and poor summer, or is this just
coincidence?

Nick

Hindcast prediction in a warming trend, but coming off the back of 2
consecutive summers which have been a little colder:

1/2 a warmer than average summer, 6/4 a cooler one. i.e. it is likely
to be warmer than the most recent Manley 30-year mean.

No idea about temperatures during the transition period of spring, or
about spring/summer precipitation - I don't think either is in any way
predictable, with any confidence, ATM
*))