Will Hand wrote:
This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit
now that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has
turned out to be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the
models had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out.
But what happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising
the wet-bulb freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold
rain/sleet instead of snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and
this happens there is no place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen,
spent more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in
the lowest layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the
upper trough comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m
wet-bulb freezing levels that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and
I will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult
situations. Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as
wrong but then it is easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will

Will - I know sod all about the atmosphere compared to you but I went
for snow too based on years of synoptic watching and gut feeling. It was
very borderline. There was RASN in that rain but it didnt quite come
off. Best be prepared I say and leave the likes of us disappointed, than
a 'surprise' dump of snow make us all feel like idiots.

Mind now whats going to happen in the next 48 hours! I'll shake the
glass bowl up with snow in this time.

Phil

--
Guildford, Surrey

www.layton.me.uk/meteo.htm