On Feb 17, 9:23*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit now
that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has turned out to
be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the models
had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out. But what
happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising the wet-bulb
freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold rain/sleet instead of
snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and this happens there is no
place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen, spent
more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in the lowest
layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the upper trough
comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m wet-bulb freezing levels
that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and I
will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult situations..
Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as wrong but then it is
easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will
--

Well said. It's just the way it goes. welcome to the club. *))