This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit
now
that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has turned out
to be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the models
had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out. But what
happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising the
wet-bulb freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold rain/sleet
instead of snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and this happens
there is no place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen, spent
more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in the
lowest layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the upper
trough comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m wet-bulb
freezing levels that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and I
will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult situations.
Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as wrong but then it
is easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will,

I know you went for it and it was a very difficult situation, one many would
not have even attempted, so good on you for that!
I will always be looking out for your forecasts with interest, despite my
moans and groans
It's just bugged me this Winter being the coldest for 30 years and at my
altitude I really thought I would have had at least one heavy fall by now!
The biggest fall of just 6 cms in January is much lower than we get in most
mild winters!
What was more depressing was your snowy forecast, coupled with the fact
Philip mentioned last weekend this being a similar situation to 1968 when we
had shed loads of the stuff
I really thought we would get a big one this week but so far zilch!
Temperature really struggled today too, around 1.1c at best but ppn was just
too light.
The temperature has started falling in the last hour around 0.2c now and
with light to moderate snow falling it's finally settling.
I think for this area it's been one of those Winter's where we've just
missed out on the heavy snow as I sure we will tomorrow, although it won't
be too far away I suspect.
Anyway keep up the good work! You get far more right than you get wrong,
already looking forward to you next one

Graham