"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit
now that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has turned
out to be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the models
had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out. But what
happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising the
wet-bulb freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold rain/sleet
instead of snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and this happens
there is no place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen, spent
more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in the
lowest layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the upper
trough comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m wet-bulb
freezing levels that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and I
will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult situations.
Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as wrong but then it
is easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will
--

You're not the only one. I had forecast lots of snow showers in this area
for this week on my website's local forecast. It's been bone dry so far.

If we got it right 100% of the time, people would ask us for the national
lottery numbers.