Dave Cornwell wrote:
"Len Wood" wrote in message
...
On Feb 17, 9:23 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
This maybe a tad premature given the present situation but I will admit
now
that my prediction for "widespread lowland snow" this week has turned out
to
be a poor one.

I've looked back, and at the time there was great potential and the models
had been consistent and the synoptics indeed were not far out. But what
happened was that the temperature was one degree higher raising the
wet-bulb
freezing level by 200m or so and many places got cold rain/sleet instead
of
snow. The trouble is that when you go for snow and this happens there is
no
place to hide!

But why was it warmer than many runs were initially showing? I think the
answer lies in our old friend SST. The air feeding into the low complex,
which was perhaps a shade further west than I thought might happen, spent
more time over the ocean going west over the top and warmed up in the
lowest
layers. It is only now as the deep cold polar air behind the upper trough
comes east that we will get the widespread sub 200m wet-bulb freezing
levels
that I expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

Ah well, I have a thick skin and I have been wrong many times before and I
will be wrong again, but I won't stop trying in very difficult situations.
Fortunately at least for me locally I won't be quite as wrong but then it
is
easier forecasting for upland areas - sometimes.

Will
--

You should worry - I got everyone to call off their golf today ,on the best
day of the winter in these parts!
It is very frustrating though that it always seems to go 1-2C warmer than
expected, never the other way. I don't know why they don't do all the clever
stuff then add one degree for luck!
Dave



Might be interesting to do a formal analysis of the model forecasts to
see if there is a bias present at longer lead times. I have a suspicion
that it is illusionary fuelled by frustration at the promise of snow
that hasn't come off several times. Would you have noticed if the models
had forecast 6C with rain and it was 4C with rain?