On Feb 24, 7:57*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 23, 11:19*am, Dawlish wrote:

Both the gfs and (to a lesser extent) the ECM have pressure building
over the UK from about a week out. Nothing particularly warm on the
850 hpa temps, but as has been pointed out, we're approaching the
equinox and the stronger sun might well produce some reasonable
afternoon temperatures if skies were clear; light winds could further
accentuate the feel of more pleasant conditions.

See if that stays on the charts through today and especially if the
ECM follows the gfs, which has been keener on this scenario over the
last few runs.

Still signs of the establishment of high pressure over the UK by 10
days - ECM 00z coming around to that at T+240 now. *The possible
buckling of the jet brings is closer to the UK this weekend and it
will probably bring some very wet weather with it for the south, but
then the gfs keeps the jet where it has been seeingly forever; well to
out south.

After the apocalyptic easterlies run yesterday evening from the gfs -
and there is still another colder burst shown on the gfs 00z before
the high might begin exert its influence - I'd need to see today's
runs showing high pressure before I'd be able to forecast its arrival
with reasonable confidence and with it a settling down of the weather;
not real spring-like a warming up as such, but a settling down. Over
the next week, or so, it just looks like more of the same, but wetter!
8(

12z gfs backs the high pressure at 10 days. Now if the ECM will only
agree..........