On Feb 27, 1:51*pm, Simon S wrote:
On 27 Feb, 13:07, "Les Hemmings" wrote:

Natsman wrote:
Looks like we're in for a battering during another stormy night in
France - on the face of it, probably worse than Thursday night. *We
have orange vigilance warnings for much of the country - expecting the
worst around 02:00 Sunday morning.

CK

Getting the same kind of thoughts here in Folkestone...

Would I be correct in thinking the track if forecast to be a little
further north than was expected?

Simon S (South Yorkshire)

The gfs has changed the track over the previous week, certainly. On
Wednesday, when Richard opened this thread:

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...b454a2f5d8d5e#

the track then was, if anything, a little further to the NW and as a
result, Will was including Wales in a snow firing line. 24 hours
later, a couple of us mentioned that the low was showing signs of
assuming a track more to the SE of that original projection,
especially on the gfs, with the major fallout being over N. France.
That probably will still be true, but now, 2 days after that, the
track is being modelled a little further to the NE again. So you are
right Simon, if you choose Thursday's output as a datum; if you choose
Wednesday's path as a starting point, it is actually a little to the
SE of what was being modelled then.

I think the models, so far, have done very well with this, but a final
judgement on this could only be made after tomorrow. We should just
about stay dry in Exeter this evening, but I'm expecting to be
awakened by rain and winds in the night. (I'm also rather hoping
Giraffe will be free from a terrorist assembling a bomb in the gents!)