On Mar 3, 10:17*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,





*Dawlish writes:
On Mar 2, 10:22*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Another day like yesterday in prospect. 8C for Will on the hill
yesterday and quite a surprising 6C for him at 0900 today; 3C warmer
than the coast at Teignmouth - hat's what an inversion does for you.
temperatures here rising quickly and we're much more likely to breach
double figures today than he is.

We'd better make the most of it. Today's 00Z model runs are not at all
encouraging for the next couple of weeks, as you've no doubt seen.

It's likely to be generally dry though John, at least over the next
week.

I wrote my post yesterday (Tuesday), so it was yesterday's 00Z runs that
I was referring to. Those runs were indicating the likelihood of a
strong E or NE flow across at least the south of the country. Since
then, the models have tended to place the controlling High further
south, so that things now look much more promising. It looks as if by
the weekend and into next week most of the country should have a fair
amount of sunshine by day and light winds, which should make it quite
pleasant, though perhaps still with some frosty nights.

And the dryness will probably be accompanied by some sunshine
for many, though it'll be colder in the east. The west will probably
have some nice sunny days and will be pleasant if you can get out of
the wind. The gfs ens for London show the probability of hardly any
rain before next weekend and even less for my neck of the woods,
though temperatures arn't likely to be anything to write home about:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Yep.

From a week ago, I'm still happy about my forecast for this Saturday
and this high looks to be rooted for a while. Some hints of pressure
falling towards T+240.

Yep.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

ECM 12z takes away the hints of pressure falling at T240 and the gfs
12z introduces it! No agreement means my confidence about the
anticyclone persisting until next weekend is not high enough to
forecast it. MetO holds a similar view in its 6-15 day precis.

Personally, I find the decision to introduce a 16-30 day forecast
bizzare. Is there an explanation of the reason and the methods they'll
use to make this forecast? Maybe they are on the site and I've missed
them and sorry if I have. Please direct me to it if you've found the
rationale. In addition, is it going to be monitored for any accuracy?
Will anyone actually remember what was forecast, on a daily basis, a
month ago and will anyone care?