After the changing output of the last 36 hours, we're in a period of
real uncertainty towards mid-month. The MetO says this:

"From Monday (15th) until Friday (19th) March the weather becomes much
more unsettled with wind and rain in many western parts spreading
slowly southwards. Temperatures cold at first but near normal later."
It then continues this forecast in a similar unsettled vein past the
end of March on the 15-30 day forecast.

The 12z ECM shows high pressure dominating, whereas the 12z gfs shows
something more unsettled.



Neither the 00z gfs, nor the 00z ECM were outliers in terms of
temperatures compared to the ECM mean and neither was the 12z gfs
operational, compared to the gfs ensemble mean:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

A slow warming trend is likely, but would anybody like to take a
position on the synoptic situation at 10 days?