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Old March 6th 10, 12:20 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Alex Stephens Jr Alex Stephens Jr is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Sep 2005
Posts: 389
Default No more seasonal forecasts .. for now


"John Hall" wrote in message
...


If you look at 2050 in isolation, then you are effectively turning the
climate forecast into a weather forecast, and it is likely to be worse -
less accurate and much less detailed - than an attempt to forecast the
next season in 2010. But if you regard it as a climate forecast for the
period 2045-2055, then the picture should be different. It won't tell
you about individual years, but it will tell you about the
characteristics of the period. Forty years is a far way away, but it
should be possible to say something like 95% confidence that mean
temperature for 2045-55 will be between 1 and 2 degrees (say) higher
than it is now.


Thanks again for an excellent reply John.
95% certainty on a figure ±0.5șC at a range of 40 years ± years.
And presumably precipitation estimations must be equally as accurate.
I have to say that is utterly phenomenal. I had no idea the climate was so
easily modelled.
It is indeed easier than a 2 day weather forecast apparently.

Wow.... Nope, I can't get my head around it. It doesn't fit. Not the actual
figure, but the confidence percentile, it's way too high with too little a
margin for error on such a timescale. And you don't need a PhD in statistics
to work that one out. :-)

Eeee, who's guilty of this crime? Name and shame.

Alex.