"John Hall" wrote in message
...


If you look at 2050 in isolation, then you are effectively turning the
climate forecast into a weather forecast, and it is likely to be worse -
less accurate and much less detailed - than an attempt to forecast the
next season in 2010. But if you regard it as a climate forecast for the
period 2045-2055, then the picture should be different. It won't tell
you about individual years, but it will tell you about the
characteristics of the period. Forty years is a far way away, but it
should be possible to say something like 95% confidence that mean
temperature for 2045-55 will be between 1 and 2 degrees (say) higher
than it is now.

Thanks again for an excellent reply John.
95% certainty on a figure ±0.5ºC at a range of 40 years ± years.
And presumably precipitation estimations must be equally as accurate.
I have to say that is utterly phenomenal. I had no idea the climate was so
easily modelled.
It is indeed easier than a 2 day weather forecast apparently.

Wow.... Nope, I can't get my head around it. It doesn't fit. Not the actual
figure, but the confidence percentile, it's way too high with too little a
margin for error on such a timescale. And you don't need a PhD in statistics
to work that one out. :-)

Eeee, who's guilty of this crime? Name and shame.

Alex.