On Mar 5, 7:24*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...





After the changing output of the last 36 hours, we're in a period of
real uncertainty towards mid-month. The MetO says this:

"From Monday (15th) until Friday (19th) March the weather becomes much
more unsettled with wind and rain in many western parts spreading
slowly southwards. Temperatures cold at first but near normal later."
It then continues this forecast in a similar unsettled vein past the
end of March on the 15-30 day forecast.

The 12z ECM shows high pressure dominating, whereas the 12z gfs shows
something more unsettled.

Neither the 00z gfs, nor the 00z ECM were outliers in terms of
temperatures compared to the ECM mean and neither was the 12z gfs
operational, compared to the gfs ensemble mean:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

A slow warming trend is likely, but would anybody like to take a
position on the synoptic situation at 10 days?

So in March you will go for the slow warming trend.

Brilliant absolutey brilliant.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The ECM ens are quite different to yesterday in terms of drier and
less windy at 10 days, but the mildening is still the

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

Less of a warmer trend in the gfs ens, but, as I'd thought, that cold,
northerly, 06z run was a huge cold outlier at 10 days!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

No agreement and little consistency from either of these models makes
a forecast with even reasonable accuracy impossible at present. MetO
reflect this as they've changed their forecast at 8 days + completely
from yesterday's "much more unsettled" unsettled outlook at 9+ days to
this:

"From Sunday (14th) through the following week high pressure will
still dominate across much of the UK away from the northwest. So a lot
of dry weather with overnight fog and frost continuing."

This puts back the change to an Atlantic regime a little further.Hard
to imagine a bigger turnaround in 24 hours at 10 days. I don't blame
them for altering their forecast so radically, but it backs what I'm
been saying about the present difficulty. Forecasting at 10 days at
the moment with confidence is impossible, IMO. You could guess and get
it right, or you could guess and get it wrong. No better.

Like I also said, I see nothing else in the methodology behind the
ensuing at 16-30 day forecast more than extrapolating what the gfs ens
and the ECM ens means are showing to 16 days. I can't see the point of
offering this new monthly forecast and I'd love to see how the public
questionnaire, the results of which the MetO say they are responding
to, was worded to give them the impression that the general public
want a monthly forecast instead of a seasonal one. Having seen the
results of many questionnaires designed by students, I know that it is
very easy to get your respondents to give you the answer that you wish
them to.