March 11th 10, 10:34 PM
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Mar 2010
Posts: 10
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ENSO update from NOAA
keep it up bigot boy
Dawlish wrote:
Little change on the face of it, but actually as NOAA say: "Since
early February 2009, the heat content has increased across the east-
central Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of another
Kelvin wave." Anyone following the Monday updates, will see that
wasn't expected at that time. The current El Nino is hanging on with a
little more strength than was expected. That may not change the
eventual speed of its decline, however. NOAA's summary:
"•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average
across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere
spring 2010."
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf
About 50% of models are going for a decline to a colder than average
equatorial pacific by the autumn and 3 go for a La Nina by then. 2
keep the El Nino throughout this year and a number go for a re-warming
after a cooling through the summer, from present values. It would be
very difficult to justify any predictions of what will actually happen
to ENSO during the summer, on the output from these models, as a
result. As the Australian BOM says, ENSO becomes notoriously difficult
to predict in the Austral autumn and the model output reflects that.
The moderate El Nino is presently playing a part in the current very
warm march global temperatures:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+001
Current Hadley Centre research (Scaife et al.) shows that El Nino
conditions can produce colder conditions in NW Europe in late winter
and early spring. That theory has proven correct for this winter.
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