On Mar 14, 12:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 13, 11:40*pm, "jbm" wrote:





"John Hall" wrote in message

.. .

This seems to crop up every year. British meteorologists and
climatologists take winter as the months of December, January and
February and spring as March, April and May. That seems eminently
sensible to me. Using complete months makes calculating averages for
each season simpler, and also on average the first three weeks of March
are warmer than the first three weeks of December. There's no good
reason why spring should be considered to begin at the Vernal Equinox,
at least as far as weather and climate are concerned.
--

I would have thought February 5th would have been the ideal date. It is half
way between the solstice and equinox, so using that as a base line,
mid-summers day, 21st June or the summer solstice, would then be literally
mid-summer.

It brings Mr Spock to mind. Nothing humans do is ever logical.

jim, Northampton

Looks like the "while" in the title could be disappointingly short.
Although both the gfs 06z and the ECM 00z both show mild conditions at
10 days, they are also on the warm side of the ensemble means; the ECM
especially so and it is a warm outlier. GEM shows westerly flows which
may end up closer to what we actually get, rather than the mild
southerlies of the gfs and ECM operationals:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

I wouldn't despair about the cooler possibilities, as there is that
agreement between the two models, but that would have to be translated
into a few consecutive milder runs for me to be interested. I'm still
happy about my 10-day forecast for Friday, but there could be another
cooling soon afterwards.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

A turn for the more unsettled on the 12z ECM and even March snow in a
freezing easterly if you believe the 12z gfs! It'll be a rank cold
outlier at 10 days, but it hints at what the ensemble mean has been
showing.