On 15 Mar, 05:23, "Darren Prescott" wrote:
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0522, 15th March 2010

The end of the week will see warm weather over England and Wales moving away
to the east as cloud and rain move in from the west. Scotland and Northern
Ireland won't be as warm to start with and they'll also see rain at the end
of the week and into the weekend.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
Westerlies cover the UK, with high pressure to the SW. Tomorrow a ridge
moves eastwards over England and Wales, with westerlies as a result. The
ridge moves swiftly eastwards on Wednesday, allowing southerlies to affect
the UK. Southerlies and SSW'lies affect the UK on Thursday, with a low to
the west.

T+120 synopsishttp://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12015.png/http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.pnghttp://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gifhttp://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif/http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a strong southerly-tracking jet over the North
Atlantic. At the 500hPa level there are westerlies over the UK, as is the
case with ECM which also shows a southerly jet to the west. MetO shows a
more zonal flow and WSW'lies aloft, with GEM offering westerlies aloft as
per ECM and GFS. JMA shows WSW'lies aloft and a weak ridge over the UK.
At the surface, GFS brings a trough with southerlies in advance and NW'lies
following behind. ECM brings SW'lies and a ridge over the SE, while MetO has
a trough over eastern areas and westerlies following behind. GEM has a weak
ridge and westerlies, while JMA shows SW'lies with a ridge over the Irish
Sea.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows a weak trough and light winds for most on day 6. A ridge moves
eastwards on day 7, leading to SW'lies.
GFS brings a southerly flow on day 6 with a trough to the west. Day 7 sees
southerlies and complex low pressure to the west.

Looking further afield
ECM shows southerlies on days 8 to 10 with low pressure never far away.
GFS has low pressure slowly crossing the UK on days 8 to 10, leading to
colder weather for all.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ext=1&y=141&ru...)
The GEFS shows a warming trend this week followed by a return to nearer
average conditions by the weekend.

ECM ensembleshttp://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif
The ECM ensembles show a warm spell this week, followed by cooler
conditions.

To be born in mind as Friday approaches bringing news of the change
from an ostensibly thundery spell to what aught to be some fine
weather. But we just had some of that?

Mar 15 21:01 Mar 23 11:00
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001.html