On Mar 18, 7:37*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*John Hall writes:
In article
,
Dawlish writes:
snip
PS Joe forecast the east and the west coasts of the USA would be very
cold this winter and the central states would be warmer - exactly the
opposite of what actually happened. He got the overall colder than
average forecast correct (good guess) but the complete failure with
the areal temperature distribution showed he'd done the same as he had
for the 4 previous incorrect USA forecasts - he'd made, again, a guess.
I'm no admirer of Joe, but is your first sentence correct? I don't know
about the west coast, but my own impression is that the eastern states
were colder than usual but that central areas were milder. The chart in
Weather Log in the latest "Weather" showing 500-1000mb thickness anomaly
contours for January shows a huge positive anomaly centred just west of
Hudson Bay with a peak value of +14, which would seem consistent withe
central regions being mild.
Doing a little research on NOAA's site, I found a map for December of
anomalies for each state. That showed that the NE was around average but
everywhere else cold, with the mid-West exceptionally cold. That's
closer to what you said than to what I'd thought. Unfortunately there
don't yet seem to be similar maps for January or February, and it's
quite possible that there could have been huge swings from month to
month.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Try the National overview John. Look at the Jan and Feb figures for
the NE USA.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...d=Get+R eport
"Meanwhile, upper-level patterns contributed to warmer-than-average
temperatures in the Northwest and Northeast climate regions". Maine
actually had it's 3rd warmest winter period (Dec-Feb inc. on record).
Amazing eh?
5/5 USA forecasts incorrect. That fact makes Rupert's assessment of
Joe's ability absolutely correct. Joe guesses and hopes for cold to
bolster his reputation. Sometimes he is bound to be correct. *))