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Old March 19th 10, 03:50 PM posted to uk.sci.weather,sci.geo.earthquakes
Weatherlawyer Weatherlawyer is offline
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Default Some contradictions in long term Met Office forecast

On 19 Mar, 15:41, Nick wrote:
On Mar 19, 12:58*pm, "Norman" wrote:
Nick wrote:


"The first half of April is likely to remain unsettled, with
temperatures near normal and precipitation likely to be around average
for most areas."


The first statement in that line suggests bad weather, though the
second and third suggest average conditions. Unless April habitually
produces bad weather (and generally, it produces good weather as often
as it does bad) that would suggest a contradiction.


I don't see the contradiction, Nick. Unsettled with near average temperature
and rainfall is a very common British Isles situation. It's probably quite a
good description of a typical British summer.


To me I've always taken "unsettled" to mean significantly above-
average rainfall, and significantly below-average pressure, i.e. a
series of deep lows with very active fronts and virtually no dry days,
such as last November.


What will be interestin in April is that all the phases indicate the
same spell except for the last one which is the same as the one just
gone. (7th March on IIRC.)

What happened with them recently though admittedly after a rather
prolonged build up to a rather extreme earthquakes and series of
lesser tremblors is that we had an anticyclone. But since the time of
the phases presage goggy weather that might just be what we get.

So we should be getting an inversion for the first three weeks. WHich
isn't normal for April. Is it?

The USGS expert at Santiago or Valparaiso or wherever, has just
forecast an high probability for another large magnitude quake in the
not too distant. So beware if you're there.