"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...

"Dawlish" wrote in message

I argee with much of what you say Lex and of course, negative
feedbacks could have begun to occur already - however the last little
bit about the northern hemisphere warmer areas being balanced by the
colder areas (which would produce an average Northern Hemisphere
winter temperature) would take some proving against even a 30-year
mean! I'd like to see your figures on that one.

Good to see you have no agenda. See how your future posts on the
subject stack up in that respect!



Just a quick reply, I stated that northern hempisphere LAND temperatures
this past winter were lower than the average of the last 30 years. Not
including oceanic temperatures of course. I took the figures from the ncdc
website, which seems a fairly reliable source.
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ano...1-2000mean.dat

The figure given for each winter is the deviation from the whole dataset
average I believe (winter being the December of the previous year,
averaged with the January and February of the stated year). Or perhaps
it's the deviation from that dastardly 1951-1980 mean that keeps cropping
up. Either way, it shows that the past winter was marginally cooler than
the most recent 30 year mean. The Winter's of 2001 and 1993 stand out as
being colder during the last 10, and the winter of 1985 clearly the
coldest of them all.
Note that the last three values show a plateau, two or more subsequent
values may indicate a trend of warming suspension (as far as NH land
winters are concerned). But we have to wait two years to see if that will
be the case.

1980.0 0.8
1981.0 0.8
1982.0 0.2
1983.0 0.7
1984.0 0.1
1985.0 -0.6
1986.0 0.4
1987.0 0.5
1988.0 0.5
1989.0 0.5
1990.0 0.6
1991.0 0.7
1992.0 0.9
1993.0 0.7
1994.0 0.0
1995.0 1.1
1996.0 0.4
1997.0 0.8
1998.0 0.8
1999.0 1.3
2000.0 1.4
2001.0 0.3
2002.0 1.4
2003.0 0.7
2004.0 1.3
2005.0 0.6
2006.0 0.8
2007.0 1.4
2008.0 0.6
2009.0 0.9
2010.0 0.6
average 0.7

;-)

I should also add, that if the NH winter land values for 2011 and 2012 do
form a suspended trend (compounding seven of the last eight winters) whilst
the corresponding ocean temperatures continue warming - it would be
significant evidence of negative feedback.
Complex theoreticity :-)