On Mar 20, 8:37*pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 20/03/10 09:41, Will Hand wrote:

Speaking purely as a mathematician (which is my degree qualification),
if a trend reverses, then it will take time for subsequent events to
return to a long term value. So I am not surprised that the NH winter
was 13th warmest, but perhaps if the GW temperature trend had still been
on the up at the same rate is was a few years back then perhaps it
should have been the fourth or such. OTOH if GW had not happened then
last winter might have been the 100th. Only time will tell, but I think
what Alex is alluding to is that last winter probably came as a shock to
climate scientists!

I still think too much has been made of the recent levelling-off of
global temperatures. Looking at an 11-yr running mean, it is no more
noticeable - at least so far - than any of the pauses that have been
happening every 7-8 years since 1970, in fact rather less so than a
couple of them. This is also true when looking at 5-yr means.

The last 12-month period was the warmest on record for the March to
February period at +0.61C, beating the previous highest of 2005-6 by
just 0.01C with 2006-7 in third place at +0.58C.

When looking at any 12-month period, the highest was that ending in
December 2005 at +0.63C, followed by those ending in July and August
2007 at +0.62C.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

Keep your eye on the 12-month period starting in either May, or June,
2009 Graham. If Global temperatures stay high - and slow global
temperature decay from this El Nino is highly likely to keep those
temperatures high, one of those two periods is likely to be a record,
global, 12-month temperature high.