Martin,

I've done a quick analysis on the correlation between cold winters
since 1940 and the following summer whereby;

Winter Average CET 1971-2000 = +4.5c
Cold Winter CET = +3.5c

Summer Average CET 1971-2000 = +15.6c
Below Average Summer CET +15.1c
Above Average Summer CET +16.1c
Average Summer CET =15.1c =16.1c

Of the 23 Winters since 1940 that had an average Central England
Temperature of = +3.5c the following Summer turned out to be the
following;

Below Average = 9
Above Average = 2
Average = 12

This can also be viewed in spreadsheet form by clicking on the
following link http://i393.photobucket.com/albums/p...sSince1940.jpg

Source data taken from the Met Officehttp://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

Conclusion, I would go for a cooler or average summer, NOT a BBQ
summer this year.