In article
,
Bonos Ego writes:
I've done a quick analysis on the correlation between cold winters
since 1940 and the following summer whereby;

Winter Average CET 1971-2000 = +4.5c
Cold Winter CET = +3.5c

Summer Average CET 1971-2000 = +15.6c
Below Average Summer CET +15.1c
Above Average Summer CET +16.1c
Average Summer CET =15.1c =16.1c

Of the 23 Winters since 1940 that had an average Central England
Temperature of = +3.5c the following Summer turned out to be the
following;

Below Average = 9
Above Average = 2
Average = 12

snip

Could not this be a result of using the CET for 1971-2000 but then
looking at all winters from 1940? Because of the warming trend in our
climate over the last 30-40 years, you'd expect a lot of years in the
1940s to 1960s to have both winters and summers that were cool by the
standards of 1971-2000, so that for those cold winters mostly to be
followed by cold summers would not be surprising.

What happens if either (1) you only look at cold winters since 1971 or
(2) you use the CET of all years since 1940 in determining your
categories for winters and summers?
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)