On Apr 28, 8:23*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 28, 1:08*pm, Dawlish wrote:

After today's warmth, it's looking likely that a much cooler spell of
northerlies will afflict us. Again, once high pressure gets
established, as one will almost certainly do in the western Atlantic
over the next few days, they can be awfully difficult to shift.

Presently, there's good agreement between the ECM and the gfs that a
notherly flow will set in from the weekend and it could be still there
the following weekend. Generally dry and cool for many, is the most
likely result, but there may be rain in the east and snow showers over
the Scottish hills. Get out of the wind in the west and there's likely
to be some pleasant enough and mainly dry weather.

Northerlies it is! Enough agreement and consistency from both models:

**At T240, on Saturday, 8th May, the UK will be at the end of a week
of an airflow with a northerly component. The cause will be an area of
high pressure which will become anchored in the Atlantic to our west.
Ridges, extending eastwards from that anticyclone and sublte changes
in its position will mean that wind directions over the UK will vary
over the next week, but will be mainly between NW and NE at T240. The
notherly component will be producing dry weather in the south and SW,
but may be producing spells of rain in the N, NW and down the east
coast. The rain may well fall as snow at times over the Scottish
mountains during the coming week. *Temperatures will be generally
below average over the UK next saturday, but it will feel pleasant,
out of the wind, in any sunshine. **

A cooler spell of weather coming up, starting this weekend and lasting
at least a week.

I don't think there's a great deal wrong with this one. The High has
migrated a little further north than I'd forecast, but wind directions
all week have had a northerly component due to that Atlantic high and
that's true of today, where nearly every part of the UK has winds
between N and NE. We do have some drizzly patches of rain in Wales and
the SW of England, though we've see the sun on occasions this morning
and when it has poked through it has been warmer, but the NW of the UK
is sunny and dry and the cloud is thicker in the east with more patchy
rain there. Temperatures are down on average for the time of year and
the cooler flow, with the northerly compnent, looks like it will
extend into early next week.

Good enough from 10 days out?