On May 9, 7:29*pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 09/05/10 17:25, Dawlish wrote:



On May 9, 12:04 pm, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 09/05/10 10:11, Anne Burgess wrote:

Very early days of course, but assuming this May continues
with a cold
than average theme, out of 9 colder than average Mays I have
records
of since 1960 only 2 following summers were on the cool/wet
side, the
remaining 7 had at least one summer month with temperatures of
1°C+
above the norm. I would also be very surprised to get a third
bad
summer in a row.

Oh, I very much hope you are right.

But this year there's the volcanic ash, which has not been
present in recent decades. What effect could that have on summer
temperatures?

Anne
(Dodging a chill north-easterly breeze in Moray)

I don't think the ash has been high enough in the atmosphere to make a
difference. What bothers me though is that the cold SST anomaly south
of the Grand Banks, which I thought was weakening, has intensified
again. It has edged WSW which, with the shortening upper-air wavelengths
at this time of year, hints that instead of an anticyclonic NE-'ly we'll
be mostly stuck with cyclonic NE-'lies. Never mind, these SST-anomaly
effects are supposed to be less effective during the summer.

It'll be interesting to see if that proves the case. It's not what is
shown in the models currently, but I'd think this may have a longer
timescale that this - if it happens. *))

Oh, of course. These SST patterns are only providing ideas on average
pressure anomalies for the next month, say, so you could still get a
heatwave for a week and three weeks of cold and wet weather. Mind you, I
don't see much sign on the 12Z GFS of any relief from the cold.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
Take back Parliament:http://www.takebackparliament.com/

Thanks Graham for your input, I always find this aspect of the
circulation extremely interesting.

Keith (Southend)