On May 15, 1:01*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On May 14, 4:50*pm, Nick wrote:

Bit confused as to exactly what's going to happen next week - the
forecast charts suggest high pressure yet the Met Office forecast
suggests something significantly worse than of late. I'd be quite
happy to keep these northerlies myself - they're keeping it
persistently bright!

Nick

I can understand anyone's confusion with that 6-15 day forecast at the
moment. This lunchtime's MetO picture update hardly paints the picture
that the models are showing for later next week. Maybe they are hoping
the weather will stay cool and unsettled to bolster their present cool
and wet start to June prediction in the 15-30 day forecast? Good luck
to them, but there's a lot of very low probability stuff in that. The
gfs shows a cold plumge at 12 days, but would anyone care to forecast
that will happen? I would think that persistence from the Azores high
would be a likelier option at 10-14 days, but that would also really
be a low probability assessment. *An element of how confident they are
in this forecast would be a big help. I gave a 75%+ confidence from 10
days out that we'd have a taste of summer from a movement of the
Azores high next Wednesday and I'm still happy with that.

6-15 day forecast beginning to change to take into account the model
changes; the last week of May is now forecast to be fine and dry with
perhaps very warm temperatures locally. The old forecast will be eaten
by the forecast langoliers and quietly forgotten:

UK Outlook for Friday 21 May 2010 to Sunday 30 May 2010:

Initially northwestern areas will be rather cloudy with occasional
rain or drizzle, although elsewhere we can expect many places to be
dry and bright, but with heavy showers or thunderstorms affecting some
inland locations. Then as we head into the last week of the month, it
looks likely that largely fine conditions will continue in many areas,
especially in southern, central and western parts, but that northern
and northeastern areas will tend to be cloudier and breezier at times
with a higher risk of showers. The temperature during this spell is
likely to be warm or locally very warm at first, with a generally
rather humid feel, but as we head towards the end of the month it is
expected to become cooler in northern and eastern parts.

Updated: 1244 on Sun 16 May 2010