On May 15, 1:01*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On May 14, 4:50*pm, Nick wrote:

Bit confused as to exactly what's going to happen next week - the
forecast charts suggest high pressure yet the Met Office forecast
suggests something significantly worse than of late. I'd be quite
happy to keep these northerlies myself - they're keeping it
persistently bright!

Nick

I can understand anyone's confusion with that 6-15 day forecast at the
moment. This lunchtime's MetO picture update hardly paints the picture
that the models are showing for later next week. Maybe they are hoping
the weather will stay cool and unsettled to bolster their present cool
and wet start to June prediction in the 15-30 day forecast? Good luck
to them, but there's a lot of very low probability stuff in that. The
gfs shows a cold plumge at 12 days, but would anyone care to forecast
that will happen? I would think that persistence from the Azores high
would be a likelier option at 10-14 days, but that would also really
be a low probability assessment. *An element of how confident they are
in this forecast would be a big help. I gave a 75%+ confidence from 10
days out that we'd have a taste of summer from a movement of the
Azores high next Wednesday and I'm still happy with that.

Both models now going for persistence in the presence of that high
pressure over the UK. A possibility of it settling to our north, for a
while, leading to a spell of easterlies, but anticyclonic persistence
is the model theme tonight. See where we are tomorrow evening and I
may well be forecasting high pressure at 10 days, with dry, warmer
than average and settled conditions (generally) from midweek to then.
See if the 15-30 day forecast changes over the next few days as more
notice is paid to the currect models.

Does anyone keep any records of how accurate that "month in advance"
MetO forecast is? My suspicions, from erratically tuning into it, is
not very accurate at all - mainly because it is not possible to
forecast with accuracy, consistently, at that distance.........which
begs the question of why the MetO are producing them?