On 01/06/10 20:08, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
Well Joe now lays his cards on the table . El Nino well and truly dead with
La Nina starting in earnest. Joe reckons the Pacific decadal oscillation has
now started to show its hand and global temps should fall very dramatically
by september what this means for our autumn and winter I haven't a clue.
However Paul take note: you can really hold Joe to account if the predicted
fails to materialise.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/891...vblog_*******i



Any idea what period of decadal oscillation Joe is thinking of? Some,
basing their theories on the 1900-92 data, talk of anything from a
twenty to a sixty-year cycle, though how anyone can posit a 60-year
cycle from little more than ninety years of data beggars belief.
Scientists who have reconstructed a PDO Index for the period 1661-1991
from tree-rings claim to have identified a 23-year cycle. Can't say that
I was too optimistic that tree-rings would give a reliable result and,
having looked at the overlap between the reconstructed and actual PDO,
I'm even less optimistic.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK.
E-mail: newsman AT scarlet HYPHEN jade DOT com