In message
, ned
flanders writes

The probability of correct forecasting is something that has been
rattling around in my head for a while.

If on Day 1 of a 5 day forecast I'm told Rain is on the way only for
this forecast to change between rain/dry (for example) over the next
three days and then its actually dry on day 5, the forecast on day 1
was utterly worthless.

What probability of a likely event happening triggers it becoming a
'forecast'. Surely it needs to be 75% likely as that would mean it is
twice as likely to happen, as not.

Also why is that probabilty of a forecast never mentioned on tv/radio/
media forecasts. Is it because Jo Public has dumbed down so much over
the last few years that he has no concept what Porbability is?


Yeah right! Ever thought that perhaps the Met Office (MO) is dealing
with nature and nature doesn't lend itself readily to prediction?

Overall the MO does a pretty good job, read the excellent contributions
from Will Hand, he works for the MO and really knows his stuff, do you?
I doubt it.

Here on the Isle of Man our Met Office is excellent. Civil services are
an easy target for criticism from simplistic, right wing dickheads, my
best suggestion for you is to get a life and stop believing the Daily
Mail.


--


Jim