Alastair wrote:
On Jun 5, 5:25 pm, ned flanders wrote:
The probability of correct forecasting is something that has been
rattling around in my head for a while.

If on Day 1 of a 5 day forecast I'm told Rain is on the way only for
this forecast to change between rain/dry (for example) over the next
three days and then its actually dry on day 5, the forecast on day 1
was utterly worthless.

What probability of a likely event happening triggers it becoming a
'forecast'. Surely it needs to be 75% likely as that would mean it is
twice as likely to happen, as not.

Also why is that probabilty of a forecast never mentioned on
tv/radio/ media forecasts. Is it because Jo Public has dumbed down
so much over the last few years that he has no concept what
Porbability is?

Yes, why don't they tell us which of their forecasts are going to be
wrong?

They sometimes do.
But only *after* they go wrong.
What's the point of that, bloody Met Office with their 'oh so clever
with hindsight' attitude.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl