On Sun, 6 Jun 2010 07:40:40 +0100, Paul Hyett
wrote:

On Sat, 5 Jun 2010 at 10:25:50, ned flanders wrote in
uk.sci.weather :


The probability of correct forecasting is something that has been
rattling around in my head for a while.

If on Day 1 of a 5 day forecast I'm told Rain is on the way only for
this forecast to change between rain/dry (for example) over the next
three days and then its actually dry on day 5, the forecast on day 1
was utterly worthless.

What if showers are forecast - some people are going to see the forecast
as correct, while others won't...

It's not just rain though, yesterday evening the Met Ofice website and
TV broadcasts forecast a maximum temperature here in S Hants of 19
degrees C., with maybe some showers.

It's turned out to be a dry and lovely warm day here, essentially the
same feel as yesterday (max 25.5 yesterday, 23.8 today). Now that
wasn't a problem as i suspected that this could happen but the bulk of
the population would just think the forecast was completely wrong. It
was pretty obvious that here, if the showers and cloudiness didn't
materialise (always distinctly possible in these conditions) the
warmth would hang on except on West facing coasts (Solent MRSC).

So WHY didn't the forecasts mention this as a caveat? Sometimes, I
despair.

--
Dave
Fareham