On Jun 7, 8:07*pm, Len Wood wrote:
On Jun 5, 7:54*pm, Graham Easterling
wrote:





On 5 June, 19:25, Len Wood wrote:

On Jun 5, 6:25*pm, ned flanders wrote:

The probability of correct forecasting is something that has been
rattling around in my head for a while.

If on Day 1 of a 5 day forecast I'm told Rain is on the way only for
this forecast to change between rain/dry (for example) *over the next
three days and then its actually dry on day 5, the forecast on day 1
was utterly worthless.

What probability of a likely event happening triggers it becoming a
'forecast'. Surely it needs to be 75% likely as that would mean it is
twice as likely to happen, as not.

Also why is that probabilty of a forecast never mentioned on tv/radio/
media forecasts. Is it because Jo Public has dumbed down so much over
the last few years that he has no concept what Porbability is?

To be fair, as Victoria Coren wrote in the Observer last Sunday:
The Met Office recently had its budget cut by £4.3 million. That may
not sound like much, but it was a loss of more than 20 million pine
cones.

Len Wood
Wembury

Pine cones? Down here we're more up to date!http://www.redbubble.com/people/bcim...074-7-you-what

Graham
Penzance

http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/-Hide quoted text -

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OK Graham,
I know you've got superior seaweed in Cornwall!
But I am not sure the Mousehole Barometer is foolproof.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon- Hide quoted text -

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Think I probably didnt put my questions clearly enough. What I was
trying to ask was what is the accepted probability that a weather
event will occur for it to become a forecast??