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Old July 4th 10, 09:50 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Dawlish Dawlish is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Mar 2008
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Default Forecast: unsettled at T240.

On Jul 4, 8:45*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On Jul 4, 8:15*pm, Dawlish wrote:





It's not looking good as July progresses. the charts are looking more
and more unsettled and I feel I can now extend my forecast of more
unsettled weather out to the 14th. The gfs, ECM, GEM and the JMA to
(T192) are in full agreement and the gfs and the ECM have been very
consistent about this for days.


**at T240, on 14th June, the UK will be experiencing an unsettled
spell of weather, dominated by low pressure. All areas will be under
threat of rain, though the NW will be the wettest area and any warmth
at this time and in the week previous, will be provided by warm air
drawn northwards by approaching Atlantic lows and not by dominant
ridging of the Azores high. Pressure will be lower to the north, or NW
and the only area that could be experiencing pressure 1020mb in 10
days time will be the far SE, if any is at all. Winds will be between
S and NW over much of the UK**


I'm not buying this dry and settled weather, at least not for the
first half of July.


Hi Dawlish,

I just posted El Niņo/La Niņa, but I think GFS is an outlier for
the July breakdown scenario, especially for us down south.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


Outlier? Are you sure? Have you seen the last 8 runs of the gfs, the
ECM 12z, the GEM 12z and the JMA 12z? Also, the gfs ensembles show
that the 12z is anything *but* an outlier at T+240.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

I wish it was an outlier Keith and I wish the 12z ECM showed a more
encouraging scenario! The breakdown has already begun. I want sun and
more sun no matter what the present NWP output shows!!! (pouts,
screams and kicks arms and legs a lot!)