On Jul 8, 5:26*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Hi Paul, do you consider upper air forcing, ageostrophic effects etc in the
upper air when you try and put weather to the surface charts?

That is why I am still going for long extended dry spells this summer. OK
that is more for England and Wales than Scotland and NI but I still fancy it
will hold good as the ascending moist air continues to get forced
northwards. No proper rain down here as you know for weeks now and I cannot
see much in the future either (apart from one or two storms or the odd cold
front if we are lucky). This does not mean it will be high pressure but you
don't need high pressure for it to be predominantly dry, just the right
upper air patterns to produce the ageostrophic effects that will produce
descent as opposed to ascent.

Ciao,

Will
--

I understand the basics Will, but nothing like as much as a desk
forecaster. The meteorology degree and post grad qualifications in
meteorolgy are missing and I bow to your far superior knowledge! *))
However there's no need for those kind of dynamics for forecasting
from the models, as I do, through agreement and consistency at 10-
days. Further out than 10 days you are pretty much in cloud-cuckoo
land anyway. I've learned to trust outcome success statistics and
nothing else, to judge how good a forecaster/forecasts are. The MetO
success stats are opaque here; not clearly published and the MetO's
lack of focus at 10 days+ and the abandonment of seasonal forecasting
for the general public illustrates the difficulties. If some
techniques were successful at 10 days, the MetO and others, would be
able to demonstrate good outcome percentage success. I wish they
could.