bull**** cop out

you got it wrong gravy

your summer lrf is wrong

now bugger off



On 08/07/2010 7:42 PM, Dawlish wrote:

I understand the basics Will, but nothing like as much as a desk
forecaster. The meteorology degree and post grad qualifications in
meteorolgy are missing and I bow to your far superior knowledge! *))
However there's no need for those kind of dynamics for forecasting
from the models, as I do, through agreement and consistency at 10-
days. Further out than 10 days you are pretty much in cloud-cuckoo
land anyway. I've learned to trust outcome success statistics and
nothing else, to judge how good a forecaster/forecasts are. The MetO
success stats are opaque here; not clearly published and the MetO's
lack of focus at 10 days+ and the abandonment of seasonal forecasting
for the general public illustrates the difficulties. If some
techniques were successful at 10 days, the MetO and others, would be
able to demonstrate good outcome percentage success. I wish they
could.