That is why I am still going for long extended dry spells this summer. OK
that is more for England and Wales than Scotland and NI but I still fancy
it will hold good as the ascending moist air continues to get forced
northwards. No proper rain down here as you know for weeks now and I
cannot see much in the future either (apart from one or two storms or the
odd cold front if we are lucky).

Will

I've noticed that for quite a while this spring/summer that the models have
over-stated any rainfall and have been pessimistic in their forecast,
predicting low pressure systems further south and east than they actually
end up coming.

I am presuming then, that this pattern is likely to continue for the rest of
the summer?

Do you think that the Azores High will strongly build back further north
towards us as we go through the 2nd half of July and into August? It often
has in the past and Lamb referred to it in the English Climate as doing so
(he says that the Jet Stream often moves a little northwards after reaching
its lowest position in early July). Haven't got the book to hand so I cannot
double-check.
_____________________
Nick
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

"Will Hand" wrote in message
news:0%mZn.103917$vB5.93637@hurricane...
Hi Paul, do you consider upper air forcing, ageostrophic effects etc in
the upper air when you try and put weather to the surface charts?

This does not mean it will be high pressure but you
don't need high pressure for it to be predominantly dry, just the right
upper air patterns to produce the ageostrophic effects that will produce
descent as opposed to ascent.

Ciao,

Will
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