On Sun, 14 Nov 2004 22:48:44 GMT, "Dave.C"
wrote:

3. As with the above synopsis, one scenario has a domino effect on others
and the variables are immense. It seems a bit like working out the outcome
of a chess move. OK one move ahead, trickier two moves, and so on. Each day
out is like a further move.Chess has no Chaos Theory to contend with!
4. Using that analogy I have concluded that these models are no Gary
Kasparov!
5. Therefore, models and forecasts more than three days out are interesting
and complex but not something I can rely on.

I'm sure that in the next 5 days there will be far more factors than the two
highlighted that will decide if and who gets snow at the end of the week.

I agree - it's plain silly to put out a forecast like Metcheck's
"snow" scenario because that's all it is - one of several possible
scenarios with too many hard-to-predict variables to take it seriously
at this range. Recent climatology should have taught us all by now
that the "snowy Northerly" scenario rarely happens - one of the others
usually prevails. Especially *this* early in the season!

Someone throw a bucket of water over Mr Metcheck.

--
Dave